sentix Investmentmeinung 22-2016

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Was bedeutet der Brexit für das Portfolio?

Nur noch knapp drei Wochen, dann wissen wir, ob das Vereinigte Königreich die Europäische Union verlassen will oder nicht. Derzeit zeichnen die Umfragen noch kein klares Bild. Unter Risikogesichtspunkten kann man dieses Datum jedoch nicht einfach verdrängen. Was bedeutet ein Brexit für die Anleger und welche Handlungsoptionen haben diese?

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 22-2016

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EZ economic expectations favouring equities over bonds

The latest sentix survey underlines the continued interplay between macro and market expectations. In the case of the Eurozone (EZ), the sentix Economic Index has reached +9.9, its highest level this year. The improvement in eurozone economic expectations (with the sentix index also hitting a 2016 high) can also be seen in investors’ views on markets. For one thing, economics is seen as becoming a more bearish than bullish theme for eurozone bonds. For another, improving economic expectations chime with the recent turnaround in investors’ strategic bias towards equities (based on the EuroSTOXX Index) versus bonds (based on Bunds). EZ economic expectations are consistent with investors’ more constructive mediumterm views on equities versus bonds (see Page 2 for charts).

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Eurozone aggregate climbs to new high

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June’s economic expectation figures end a sluggish spring quarter. The Eurozone aggregate rises by +3.7 points to the highest value since last December. Besides, investors’ expectations over the next six-month soar by +5.5 points to +10 points. The June readings further demonstrate that other world regions can gain along with the development in central Europe. Investors are especially delighted by the progress of the US economy. The overall index climbs +6.2 points. On the US economy’s coat-tails is the economy of Asia which signals signs of improvement in comparison the previous quarter. Accordingly, the sentix global aggregate index strengthens by +4.1 points and marks the highest reading since last December.

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Investors underestimate the “Brexit” risk

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The sentix Euro Breakup Index (EBI) for may reflects improvements within the euro zone. Based on declining stress levels in the euro-periphery investors perceive the odds continue to shift in favour for the cohesion of the single currency area. However, a potential “Brexit” would cause significant turmoil.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 21-2016

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Eine kurzlebige Aktienrally?

Um satte 50% ist das Aktiensentiment zum deutschen Aktienmarkt in der letzten Woche angestiegen. Parallel dazu haben die Anleger auch ihre Positionierung spürbar angehoben. Es spricht viel dafür, dass die laufende Aufwärtsbewegung eher eine unterdurchschnittliche Halbwertszeit aufweisen sollte. Wir versuchen einen Ablaufplan zu skizzieren.

Geänderte Einschätzung: T-Bonds, Japanische Aktien

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