sentix Investmentmeinung 31-2016

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Werden China-Aktien zum heißen Tipp?

Die sentix Konjunkturindizes warten aktuell mit überraschend positiven Indikationen auf. Die Erwartungswer-te rund um den Globus steigen – angeführt von der asiatisch-pazifischen Region. Dies ist umso bedeutender, als zum Beispiel heute noch Import-Export-Daten des Vormonats negativ von den Medien kommuniziert wurden. Die Anleger bei sentix sehen das anders. Dies gilt auch für den Aktienmarkt.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Aktien China

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sentix ASR Essentials 31-2016

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Economic expectations supporting positive strategic bias on China

The latest sentix survey underlines the continued interplay between macro and market expectations. In the case of the Eurozone (EZ), the sentix Economic Expectations Index recovered from its post-Brexit shock, bouncing back from -2.0 to +4.8. This improvement in economic expectations can also be seen in investors’ views on markets, with economics seen as becoming a slightly less bullish theme for EZ bonds over the past month. Economic expectations are even more elevated for Asia ex-Japan, with the region’s expectations index hitting its highest level since June 2015 in August. This chimes with the continued increase in survey readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Chinese equities. Improving expectations on the economy continue to support investors’ constructive views on the Chinese market’s medium-term outlook (see Page 2 for charts).

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Chinese glimmers of hope

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Economic expectations are no longer negatively affected by the Brexit fallout. The sentix Economic Index improves moderately to +4.2 points. Positive growth impulses of the Chinese economy are accountable for the latest upswing, however. The European economy merely contributes to the confidence built up. The index for Asia ex. Japan jumps from +8.2 to +14.1 points. The latest round of yuan depreciation against the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen seems to act as a stimulant.

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“Overconfidence Index” highlights threat to bond market

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The sentix Global Investor Survey points towards mounting risk for German Bunds as the sentix Overconfidence Indicator’s +9 Points for the Bund-Future flashes warning signals. Comparable overconfidence levels have preceded market moves to the downside.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 30-2016

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Rohöl mit konstruktivem Sentimentsignal

Seit März bestand in Öl eine stark überkaufte Marktlage. Obwohl das sentix Risikoradar seit Wochen ein ho-hes Rückschlagrisiko signalisierte, kam erst ab Mitte Juni – nach dem Brexit – „Fahrt“ nach unten auf. Inzwi-schen hat Öl rund 20% vom Hoch verloren. Zeit, die negative Empfehlung zu überdenken.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Rohöl

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