Recovery is back on track

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Sentix captures a significant sentiment swing regarding global economic expectations in November. Neither signs of a seasonal depression of investors’ mood nor a November bias can be traced in the latest sentix data. With the exception of Austria, investors’ economic expectations rise for all major world regions. Of particular significance is the change of economic trend in Asia ex. Japan. Apparently, Chinese administration has been successful in restoring confidence in the potential of the Chinese economy.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 44-2015

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Rohstoffmärkte in der Positionierungsfalle

In den letzten Wochen bekundeten die Anleger eine steigende Zuversicht gegenüber den Rohstoffmärkten. Sowohl der Strategische Bias zu Öl und Gold, als auch das sentix Assetklassen-Sentiment stiegen deutlich. In der Folge war auch eine Portfolioanpassung zu beobachten. Gemessen an der Positionierung der „large speculators“ im COT-Report ist ein signifikanter Anstieg der Investitionsgrade feststellbar. Diese Entwicklung dürfte sich kurzfristig als Bürde erweisen.

Geänderte Einschätzung: Gold

Klicken Sie hier für die aktuelle Investmentmeinung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

Chinese Equities– Volatility ahead!

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Investors’ uncertainty about the Chinese equity market index CSI300 mounts to a 52 weeks high. The sentix Global Investor Survey shows that investors react paralysed to recent Chinese macroeconomic environment.

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sentix ASR Essentials 44-2015

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Optimism on Equities tempered ... but remains elevated

The latest sentix survey indicates that investor sentiment on equity markets has modestly retreated from recent highs, though optimism on indices in Europe and the wider world remains at relatively elevated levels. This chimes with the recent revival in survey readings focussed on investors’ medium-term strategic bias towards equity markets (see Chart 6, page 3), as well as the investor positioning questions from last week’s survey that revealed over-investment in equities had swung back above longer-term average levels. These latter developments offer some encouragement that the rally in markets is supported by an improved underlying assessment of the medium-term outlook for equities (Charts 3-4).

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Eurozone continues to stabilise

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In October, the sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) continues to decline to 11.3%, marking the lowest reading for 2015. Despite facing a tough challenge due to Europe’s influx of migrants, the Eurozone’s stability is currently not being retested.

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