sentix ASR Essentials 20-2015

Written by Patrick Hussy | 17 May 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Investors still warming to Commodities

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors remain relatively positive on Equities from a medium-term, more strategic viewpoint, and are becoming less upbeat on Bonds (see Pages 3-4). That said, monthly questions looking at asset class sentiment point to a modest weakening in sentiment towards the Emerging Equity Markets. Indeed, this chimes with weakening reading on the Chinese market. However, it sits uneasily alongside increased optimism on Commodities as an asset class (Chart 2, page). A continued revival in Commodity sentiment would suggest that the recent softening in opinion on Emerging Equity Markets may prove shortlived.

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Euro with a Greek breather

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 11 May 2015
Posted in Special research

Investors’ basic confidence in the euro erodes. This is signaled by a falling sentix Strategic Bias for the EUR-USD currency pair. Consequently, a period of US-dollar strength is set to lie ahead. But longer term the common currency should be on the rise again.

sentix Investmentmeinung 19-2015

Written by Patrick Hussy | 11 May 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

There are no translations available.

Rentencrash à la Japan 2003

Die wohl markanteste Entwicklung in der abgelaufenen Woche war der Abverkauf bei Bonds – insbesondere in Euroland. Der Bund-Future hat seit Mitte April in der Spitze um über 900 Basispunkte abgegeben, was einem Minus von 5,7% entspricht. Viele Anleger haben sich einen Absturz der Renten nicht mehr vorstellen können, der Glaube an die schützende Hand der EZB aufgrund der QE-Staatsanleihen-Käufe hat die Bondinvestoren darauf konditioniert. Dies war an einem einhelligen Medienecho zur erwarteten Zinsentwicklung abzulesen. Wenn wir bei sentix frühzeitig vor dem Crash am Rentenmarkt gewarnt haben, so stellt sich nun die Frage, wie es nach dem scharfen Rücksetzer weitergeht. Dies dürfte nicht nur für alle Zinsinvestoren wichtig sein, sondern auch Rückwirkung auf die Währungsentwicklung und den Aktienmarkt haben.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Bund-Future

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sentix ASR Essentials 19-2015

Written by Patrick Hussy | 10 May 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Sentiment shaken; but sector opinions not stirred

The latest sentix survey suggests sentiment towards Equity markets has firmed a little after recent setbacks – albeit readings for the DAX and EuroSTOXX are only modestly positive – while respondents’ views on markets from a medium-term strategic perspective remain around recent highs. Monthly survey questions on investors’ views on European sectors versus the market also suggest little in the way of a dash for safety. In terms of the defensive sectors, while Healthcare readings have revived, Food & Beverage sentiment has edged lower. In the case of the cyclicals, optimism on Autos has modestly weakened from its elevated levels, but Chemicals and Construction sentiment has improved. The revival in Energy sentiment also remains on track (Chart 3, page 2). It appears that the testing start to May has not materially impacted investors’ Equity sector preferences.

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Buying signal for German stocks

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 04 May 2015
Posted in Special research

Sentiment for German equities has deteriorated markedly. Currently it is as low as it last was at the beginning of October 2014. But investors’ basic conviction for the asset class increases and now stands close to its record high. As a result, the sentix Time Differential Index sends a clear buying signal!