sentix Survey results (36-2022)

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Basic confidence in equities remains the core problem

The very high level of fear that we measured on equities in the previous week gave way somewhat in the course of the week. Nevertheless, equities should still benefit somewhat from the poor sentiment. However, we continue to doubt that we are at a classic contrarian buying point. Fundamental confidence simply remains too weak. Moreover, in our view, the action patterns do not reflect the seriousness of the situation. The parallels to 2001 and 2008 still exist.

Further results

  • Crude oil: Risks increase
  • Silver: OCI and bias with positive signals
  • sentix sector sentiment

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sentix Survey results (35-2022)

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ANGST

This is what ANGST looks like! The mood at the stock markets reaches in rows new historical extreme values! Fear shoots the investors in the limbs, it could go with the energy supply violently something wrong. At the same time, the price of crude oil is wobbling and fears of recession are becoming real. If things turn out as they did in the crisis years of 2008 and 2001, the fall will bring a sharp drop in crude oil prices. This would then give the central banks arguments and room for maneuver.

Fruther results

  • Crude oil: Price collapse as in 2001/2008?
  • FX: High overconfidence among US dollar bulls
  • sentix economic index: 05th September 2022 at 10:30 CEST

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sentix Survey results (34-2022)

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Private investors react hesitantly

There is no end to the bad news. Sentiment collapses, investors smooth out their positions. The professionals have already prepared for a stronger setback. Private investors are reacting hesitantly. But how should positioning behavior be assessed? A comparison with 2008 shows that there is still enough room for maneuver on the downside.

Fruther results

  • FX: Bias in the Swiss Franc reaches record level
  • Precious metals: Constructive
  • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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sentix Survey results (33-2022)

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2008 as a template

One of the weakest developments in the sentix data set is the bias for Chinese equities. This falls significantly compared to the rest of the equity markets and has given up 22 percentage points in the last four weeks alone. This indicates an increasing willingness to sell. Investors are also sensing trouble with Bitcoins. All in all, many things follow a certain pattern, especially if you compare today with 2008.

Fruther results

  • Bitcoins: Risk off mode
  • Volatility: Calm before the storm
  • sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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sentix Survey results (32-2022)

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Weather forecast announces hot autumn

Investor behavior remains tense, and the ratio of medium-term confidence to short-term sentiment is extremely unfavorable. This is reflected in the time differential index for the Euro Stoxx 50 (chart), which is at a high level with a balance of +12 percentage points. Consequently, there is a risk that a hot fall on the stock markets will seamlessly follow the climatically hot summer.

Fruther results

  • EUR/USD: Development against the Euro
  • Silver: Still too high overconfidence of the bears
  • sentix sector sentiment

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

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