sentix Survey results (35-2023)

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 03 September 2023
Posted in sentix Weekly

Central bank policy loses its fright

Investors assume that the central banks will gradually take their foot off the brake. The main reason is the weak economy. This is making investors more bullish about equities in the medium term. In the short term, the fear factor is still in play - albeit now in a reduced form. Bond investors should also benefit from a less restrictive interest rate policy. Therefore, the bias development as well as the contrary overconfidence signals should be taken seriously.

Further results

  • Equities: Fear in reduced form
  • Bonds: UK bias soaring - overconfidence in US bonds
  • sentix economic index: Monday, 04th Sept. 2023 at 10:30 CEST

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sentix Survey results (34-2023)

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 27 August 2023
Posted in sentix Weekly

Negative sentiment supports

Sentiment for equities remains poor. Even though sentiment has improved somewhat, short-term skepticism dominates. This is particularly pronounced for China equities. This gives rise to short-term opportunities for a recovery. Bonds are suffering from the high attractiveness of short maturities. Memories of 2006-2008 are awakening. In gold and EUR-USD, there are interesting divergences between strategic bias and investor behavior.

Further results

  • Bonds: Short maturities are irresistible
  • Gold: Positioning helps
  • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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sentix Survey results (33-2023)

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 20 August 2023
Posted in sentix Weekly

In the middle of the process, not at the end

Sentiment for equities is plummeting dramatically. The sentiment level brings back memories of September 2022. The sentiment signal at that time marked the beginning of a major upward movement. Is the current situation comparable and is there a similarly resilient sentiment buy signal today? It is worth paying attention to similarities and differences. A worrying development is emerging for the Chinese stock market.

Further results

  • Equities: No reassessment
  • Equities: Problematic situation in China
  • sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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sentix Survey results (32-2023)

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 13 August 2023
Posted in sentix Weekly

EUR/USD: High neutrality pairs with further warning signals

Investors are slowly taking heart in equities and are looking positively into the fourth quarter. The bias for U.S. equities, but also for Japanese dividend stocks, is clearly upward. At the same time, short-term concerns persist. Overall, irritation remains at a high level, which could bring high volatility to the equity markets in the short term.
High neutrality is also a theme in currencies and bitcoin. Super neutrality is reaching extreme levels.

Further results

  • Equities: Bias increases, focus turns to the fourth quarter
  • Bonds: High Overconfidence of Fixed Income Bears in the U.S.
  • sentix sector sentiment

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sentix Survey results (31-2023)

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 06 August 2023
Posted in sentix Weekly

Fat slump in sentiment

The surprisingly marked correction in equities has led to a significant deterioration in sentiment. The bulls are pulling back sharply. This opens up a short-term contrarian potential. However, not only because of the typical August seasonality, this is likely to unfold fully only with an investment period of more than 2-3 weeks. Usually, this kind of sentiment slump is followed by a second "leg" after a short-lived recovery bounce.

Further results

  • Equities: Basic strategic confidence rises by majority
  • USD-JPY: Central bank turns investor bias around
  • sentix economic index: Monday, 07. August 2023 at 10:30 CEST

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