sentix ASR Essentials 48-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 29 November 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Stretched sentiment on FX and Equities as CB meetings loom large

The latest sentix survey provides a timely insight into investors’ thinking heading into a key period for markets, with December’s ECB and Fed meetings having cast an increasingly long shadow across markets in recent weeks. The survey highlights several areas in which sentiment has become notably stretched. In FX, investors remain extremely pessimistic on the near-term outlook for the Euro versus the US dollar. This is in marked contrast to the high optimism that is evident on equity indices such as the EuroSTOXX. Such stretched sentiment suggests a lot of central bank (CB) news is already built into FX and equity markets, which may leave them vulnerable to any disappointment. In the case of equities, the survey also suggests investors have become highly uncertain about the medium-term strategic outlook (Charts 2-4, P2). It could make for a volatile ride for markets in the coming weeks.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 47-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 23 November 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Ja ist denn heut‘ schon Weihnachten?

Der DAX Index hat die 11.000er Marke zurückerobert und die Stimmung der Anleger ist nicht nur blendend, sie ist euphorisch. Die „Wellness á la EZB“ sorgt bei den Anlegern für gute Stimmung und dennoch dürfte damit zunächst der Höhenflug eine Unterbrechung erfahren. Dafür spricht nicht nur das saisonale Muster.

Geänderte Einschätzung: Nikkei-Index, EUR-USD

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sentix ASR Essentials 47-2015

Written by Patrick Hussy | 22 November 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

High optimism on Equities contrasts with continued Commodity caution

The latest sentix survey points to highly elevated investor optimism on global equity indices. Survey readings on the near-term outlook for European and US markets are running at the high-end of their historic range, though investors have also become a little less positive on equities from a medium-term strategic perspective (see Charts 5-6, page 3). However, on the other side of the sentiment divide, investors have become more cautious on commodities as an asset class in the past month. This chimes with their slightly less positive view on the outlook for Emerging Equity Markets (Charts 2-4, page 2). Sentiment on EM Equities and Commodities remains closely linked.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 46-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 16 November 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Der Euro bleibt unter Druck

Was die europäischen Aktienmärkte freut, ist nicht zur Freude des Rests der Welt. Draghis erneutes Bekenntnis zu einer weiteren Runde quantitativer Lockerung hat den Euro-Wechselkurs wieder in Bewegung gebracht und die mehrmonatige Konsolidierungsphase, die den Euro in der Spitze bis über 1,15 zum US-Dollar ansteigen ließ, beendet. Inzwischen sind wir nur noch wenig von den Jahrestiefs entfernt und die Stimmung ist stark negativ geworden. Wie gut stehen damit die Chancen, dass sich der Euro wieder befestigen kann?

Geänderte Einschätzung: keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 46-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 15 November 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Equity sentiment setback yet to undermine medium-term view

The latest sentix survey suggests that while investors have become more cautious on the near-term outlook for equities, their faith in a brighter medium-term outlook has not been shaken. While near-term sentiment readings on the likes of the DAX and EuroSTOXX continue to pull back from recent highs, readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias are actually improving. Monthly questions on sector preferences paint a similar picture. Investors have become more cautious on resource plays and more optimistic on defensives such as Food & Beverage and Healthcare (see Charts 2-3, page 2). But the extent of the move over the past month is reasonably modest. Energy readings remain above recent lows and Healthcare well down on 2015 highs. The recent pull-back in markets has not, as yet, materially undermined investors’ views on the medium-term.

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