sentix ASR Essentials 02-2016

Written by Patrick Hussy | 17 January 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Investors defensive bias in Sectors and FX

The latest sentix survey underlines the heightened caution that is colouring investors’ views on markets. While survey readings based on investors’ mediumterm strategic bias have a stopped falling, they remain well down on 2015 highs. At the same time, monthly survey questions on sector preferences reveal a notable deterioration in sentiment towards Financials and a broad range of Cyclicals (spanning Resources to Industrials), set against growing optimism on Defensives such as Healthcare and Food & Beverage. This chimes with FX sentiment developments. Investors have become increasingly biased towards further Yen strength versus the dollar. In short, survey participants are on the defensive both in terms of Equity and FX markets (see Page 2).

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sentix Investmentmeinung 01-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 11 January 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Kurzfristig überzogen, aber nicht vorbei

Bei der aktuellen Börsenkorrektur handelt es sich um mehr, als nur einen Betriebsunfall zum Jahresstart. Nachdem der Strategische Bias bereits seit Wochen fällt und die Anfälligkeit der Aktienmärkte unterstrich, wird beim Blick auf den sentix Konjunkturindex auch klar, wo das Problem liegt. Es ist eben nicht nur „die Technik“. Positive Indikationen gibt es dagegen von den Rohstoffmärkten zu vermelden.

Geänderte Einschätzung: keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 01-2016

Written by Patrick Hussy | 10 January 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

China sentiment cracking

The latest sentix survey underlines the degree to which equity markets are in the grip of heightened near-term investor pessimism, with sentiment readings on eurozone, US and Asian markets sharply reversing. Chinese market developments have played a prominent role in unnerving investors. It is no surprise, therefore, that survey respondents have become especially downbeat on Chinese equities from both a near-term and medium-term strategic perspective, especially in light of weakening expectations on the economic outlook for China and the Asia ex-Japan region. Investors’ strategic bias on the Chinese market is as negative as it has been since the market began being covered by sentix in Q4 2009. On the other side of the sentiment divide, investors caution on riskier assets appears to be leading to growing optimism on Gold. See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 53-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 04 January 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Kalte Dusche zum Jahresauftakt

Die Märkte enttäuschen die Anleger. Obwohl die Grundüberzeugung der Anleger zu Aktien seit Wochen fällt, wirkt der Kursverlust zum Jahresstart wie eine kalte Dusche. Willkommen im Jahr 2016, dem Jahr, in dem „Risikomanagement wieder eine Bedeutung erlangt“. Das Grundmotiv unseres Jahresausblicks wird damit sehr früh im Jahr ins Gedächtnis der Anleger gerufen.

Geänderte Einschätzung: Alle Aktienmärkte, Bund-Future, USD-JPY

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sentix ASR Essentials 53-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 03 January 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

New Year ... Old concerns on Equities from strategic bias perspective

The first sentix survey of the 2016 provides some old and familiar messages in terms of investors’ views on markets. Positioning questions late last month revealed that survey participants are running with above average levels of over-investment in eurozone equities, set against modest near-term optimism on markets. However, the latest survey suggests there also remains a high degree of investor pessimism about the medium-term strategic outlook for indices such as the EuroSTOXX, albeit survey readings ticked a little higher over the week (see Charts 2-3, page 2). Coming into 2016, investors appear to remain wary about the medium-term strategic outlook for equities.

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