sentix ASR Essentials 43-2015

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Coming soon: Tuesday 27th Octover 2015

sentix Investmentmeinung 42-2015

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Rohstoffe kontra Bonds

Rohstoffe sind der neue Anlegerliebling. Ablesbar ist dies nicht nur im seit Wochen steigenden Strategischen Bias für Gold und Rohöl, sondern auch im sentix Assetklassen-Sentiment für die Assetklasse Rohstoffe. Anleger sind offenbar überzeugt, dass ein wichtiger Tiefpunkt in diesen Märkten durchschritten ist. Auch für verwandte Märkte, zum Beispiel Emerging Markets Aktien, steigt das Grundvertrauen der Investoren. In der Vergangenheit waren steigende Rohstoffpreise korreliert mit einer Verbesserung der konjunkturellen Situation und ein Frühindikator für die Inflationsentwicklung. Gilt dies auch dieses Mal?

Geänderte Einschätzung: Keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 42-2015

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Sentiment upswing on Emerging Markets and Commodities

The latest sentix survey points to a notable turnaround in investors’ attitude towards both Emerging Equity Markets and Commodities. At a market level, this change in investor opinion can be seen in the sharp revival in readings on Chinese equities, both based on near-term sentiment and investors’ strategic bias on the market. This chimes with the continued improvement in survey readings on WTI Crude. Indeed, monthly survey questions looking at investors’ views on asset classes also indicate that respondents have become more upbeat on Emerging Equity Markets in the past month, in line with improved sentiment towards Commodities (see Charts 2-4, page 2). Sentiment on EM and Commodities remains closely linked.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 41-2015

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Konstruktive Rohstoffe

Seit 2011 enttäuschen die Rohstoffmärkte die Anleger in schöner Regelmäßigkeit. Die negative Entwicklung gipfelte im August in extrem negativen Sentimentwerten für Öl, einem Allzeittief im sentix Assetklassen-Sentiment für die Anlageklasse „Rohstoffe“ und der Beinahe-Pleite des weltgrößten Rohstoffhändlers Glen-core PLC.

Geänderte Einschätzung: Gold, Rohöl

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sentix ASR Essentials 41-2015

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Sentiment upswing on Utilities and Energy

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors have become markedly less downbeat on several sectors. In the case of Utilities, readings have rebounded from historic lows, to their highest level of 2015, albeit the survey suggests pessimism remains notable. At the same time, sentiment has also improved on Basic Resources and Energy versus the market, consistent with the notable improvement seen in sentiment towards Crude Oil (see Charts 2-4). A near-term revival in equity sentiment has been accompanied by a less downbeat view on some of the least loved European sectors.

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