sentix Investmentmeinung 01-2019

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Mehr als ein Pullback?

Wie von uns erwartet gestaltet sich der Jahresauftakt 2019 freundlicher, als es der schwache Ausklang 2018 vermuten ließ. Hierzu trägt die defensive Positionierung der Marktteilnehmer bei. Handelt es sich bei der aktuellen Entwicklung nur um einen Pullback oder kann da mehr kommen?

Geänderte Einschätzungen: DAX, Nasdaq

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sentix Survey results (01-2019)

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"Caution Overconfidence" for Oil Bears

The relief over the recovery on the stock markets is great, in sentiment the pessimism disappears completely. On the positive side, investors are expanding their medium-term confidence somewhat. The process is only just beginning and could be nipped in the bud at any time. We are also receiving very strong data on the yen and the precious metal track. In addition, there was a lot of overconfidence at the turn of the year.

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Weak start to the new year

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From an economic point of view, the new year begins just as the old one ended: the worries on the forehead of investors about the overall economic situation did not diminish at the beginning of January 2019. For the im-portant economic regions of the world, the sentix economic indices show another slight setback. In Euroland, the overall index fell from -0.3 to -1.5 points, the fifth consecutive decline. The expectations for the US economy are changing particularly strongly: here the US administration is increasingly blocking itself.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 52-2018

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Ungewöhnliches Positionierungsverhalten zum Jahreswechsel

Der Jahresausklang 2018 an den Börsen war turbulent. Eine solch ausgeprägte Schwäche bei Aktien hatten wohl die wenigsten auf der Rechnung. Die Portfolien wurden auf Krisenmodus angepasst, die jahresend-typische Benchmark-Annäherung unterblieb. Dies dürfte den Jahresauftakt entscheidend prägen.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: DAX, Nasdaq 100, Bund-Future, US-Treasury-Future, USD/JPY

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sentix Survey results (52-2018)

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Silvester Edition

Silver and gold shine in the firmament at the end of 2018. Sentiment knocks at the upper extremes, the bias in gold still keeps pace with exuberance, so the current movement should be sustainable. Equity sentiment is also recovering slightly. Otherwise there are only slight emotional polarizations at the end of the year. This is precisely why it is worth taking a look at the unusual positioning behavior at the turn of the year.

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