sentix ASR Essentials 48-2014

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Emerging Market and Commodity bright-spots

The latest sentix survey indicates that investors are becoming increasingly downbeat on the medium-term outlook for Emerging Equity Markets as 2014 draws to a close, in an echo of the notable pessimism evident on Commodities as an asset class (albeit monthly survey readings are above their 2014 low point). However, behind their asset class preferences, there are a couple of noteworthy developments. Firstly, on the Emerging Markets front, survey respondents remain optimistic on the Chinese market from a medium-term, strategic viewpoint. Secondly, on Commodities, they are also becoming more upbeat on Crude in the medium-term. There are some brighter spots in the sentiment gloom that overhangs both Emerging Markets and Commodities as an asset class.

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sentix ASR Essentials 47-2014

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Cyclicals sentiment upswing yet to reach Energy and Resources

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors' views on sectors have begun to shift in the last couple of months. On one hand, survey respondents have become less optimistic on the prospects for Telecoms and Healthcare versus the market. On the other, they are now less cautious on the six month outlook for Cyclical sectors such as Industrial Goods & Services, Autos and Chemicals. As yet, however, deep pessimism remains the dominant survey theme on Basic Resources and Energy. Such pessimism echoes the extreme negative near-term sentiment towards Crude Oil, though on this front there are signs that investors are becoming less pessimistic on a medium-term, more strategic perspective (see Charts 2 to 4, page 2).

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sentix ASR Essentials 46-2014

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Economic expectations temper Bond optimism

The latest sentix survey suggests that a revival in investors' views on the economic outlook for Germany and the Eurozone is tempering their enthusiasm for Bunds. This week's survey included responses on the macro outlook, which revealed that participants viewed economics as continuing to become less bond-bullish on a six month view (see Chart 3, page 2). This is consistent with signs that the sentiment tide on Eurozone bonds may be turning. Near-term sentiment readings for Bund futures have fallen back to relatively neutral levels, while optimism on a more strategic, medium-term viewpoint is also beginning to weaken (Chart 2). Macro still matters for bond sentiment.

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sentix ASR Essentials 45-2014

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Crude pessimism reaches historic extremes

The latest sentix survey underlines the extent to which the recent reversal in Crude Oil (now down 35% in the past six months) has undermined sentiment. The nearterm sentiment revival that emerged in mid-October has been reversed in the space of a week, with readings falling to historic lows. At the same time, investors have become less optimistic on the medium-term, more strategic outlook for Crude. While extended near-term pessimism chimes with indicators that suggest Crude is oversold near-term, recent moves appear to have undermined survey participants' more fundamental views on Oil.

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sentix ASR Essentials 44-2014

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Due to travelling we cannot provide an English report this week. Please excuse the inconvenience. If you want to check the latest highlights, the German report might give you an impression about where to look.

Click here for the analysis in German (sentix registration required)

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