sentix ASR Essentials 45-2014

Written by Patrick Hussy | 30 November 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Crude pessimism reaches historic extremes

The latest sentix survey underlines the extent to which the recent reversal in Crude Oil (now down 35% in the past six months) has undermined sentiment. The nearterm sentiment revival that emerged in mid-October has been reversed in the space of a week, with readings falling to historic lows. At the same time, investors have become less optimistic on the medium-term, more strategic outlook for Crude. While extended near-term pessimism chimes with indicators that suggest Crude is oversold near-term, recent moves appear to have undermined survey participants' more fundamental views on Oil.

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sentix ASR Essentials 44-2014

Written by Manfred Hübner | 23 November 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Due to travelling we cannot provide an English report this week. Please excuse the inconvenience. If you want to check the latest highlights, the German report might give you an impression about where to look.

Click here for the analysis in German (sentix registration required)

sentix ASR Essentials 43-2014

Written by Manfred Hübner | 16 November 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Cyclicals sentiment upswing

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors’ views on sectors have begun to shift in the past month. On one hand, survey respondents have become less cautious on the six month outlook for Cyclical sectors such as Industrial Goods & Services, Autos and Chemicals. Sentiment towards Basic Resources has also modestly improved, in contrast to Energy, where pessimism still dominates. On the other hand, they have become less optimistic on the prospects for Telecoms and Healthcare versus the market (see Charts 2 to 4, page 2). Deep pessimism on Cyclical sectors versus Defensives may be beginning to ease.

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sentix ASR Essentials 42-2014

Written by Patrick Hussy | 09 November 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

A less bond-bullish view of macro themes

The latest sentix survey indicates that investors remain optimistic on the mediumterm, more strategic outlook for eurozone bonds, albeit readings are down on their early-October highs. In the near-term, however, sentiment is more neutral, while the survey also reveals a high degree of 'neutrality' on the near-term outlook. Such uncertainty is consistent with investors' views on the macro backdrop, with investment themes such as inflation and economics being seen as having become a little less bond-bullish on a six month view (see Chart 3, page 2). The tide of medium-term optimism on bonds is still rising. However, beneath the sentiment surface, it is also apparent that a degree of uncertainty on the near-term has emerged.

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sentix ASR Essentials 41-2014

Written by Manfred Hübner | 02 November 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

BOJ moves – seen as good for Nikkei; bad for Yen

The latest sentix survey underlines the extent to which the BOJ's surprise stimulus measures have impacted sentiment towards Japanese markets. In terms of the near-term outlook for the Nikkei 225, sentiment readings have spiked sharply higher, albeit they are shy of historic highs. While the initial impact on survey participants' views on the medium-term outlook has been less dramatic, investors are becoming gradually more upbeat from a more strategic perspective, after a latesummer setback in sentiment. On the other side of the sentiment divide, pessimism on the Yen versus the USD has also increased markedly, with near-term sentiment readings reaching historic highs on USD/JPY (while USD optimism is also high-end in EUR/USD). Investors seem to view BOJ moves as good for Nikkei, but bad for Yen.

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