sentix ASR Essentials 13-2017

Written by Patrick Hussy | 02 April 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

High underlying uncertainty on eurozone equities

The latest sentix survey underlines investors’ deeply negative medium-term strategic bias on equity markets in Europe, Japan and the US. In the case of the US, strategic bias readings on the S&P 500 are not far from historic lows. While optimism on the near-term outlook for indices has increased in the last couple of weeks, it has done nothing to shake investors’ downbeat convictions on the medium-term. At the same time, sentix neutrality indices suggest a high degree of underlying uncertainty on the medium-term outlook for eurozone indices such as the DAX and EuroSTOXX. Taken together this suggests potential for a pick-up in volatility as Q2 unfolds. See Charts p2.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 12-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 27 March 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Währungen im Fokus

Entgegen unserer Erwartungen zeigt der Yen keine Schwäche, im Gegenteil. Nun dreht auch der Strategische Bias deutlich – und zwar gegen US-Dollar! – und wirbelt damit so einiges durcheinander. In jedem Fall müs-sen wir dieser Entwicklung Tribut zollen und schließen die USD-JPY-Empfehlung. Im Gegenzug verbessert sich das Gold-Setup – trotz relativ hoher Sentimentwerte!

Geänderte Einschätzungen: USD-JPY, Gold

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sentix ASR Essentials 12-2017

Written by Patrick Hussy | 26 March 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Strong strategic bias themes evident in Equities, FX and Oil

Several strong themes have emerged from the sentix survey in terms of investors’ strategic bias. Investors appear to remain unconvinced about the medium-term outlook for global equities, with strategic bias readings declining for indices in Europe, the US and Japan. In the case of the Eurozone, this has resulted in participants’ strategic bias on bunds versus equities becoming much less negative in recent months. At the same time, survey participants have become more positive on the medium-term outlook for the euro versus the US dollar, likely helped by the Fed’s recent more ‘dovish’ rate hike than had been expected. However, expectations of a weaker dollar have done little to change investors’ medium-term bias on Crude Oil, with strategic bias readings now not far from their 2015 lows. Strong strategic bias themes are evident in survey readings on Equities, FX and Oil. See Charts p2.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 11-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 20 March 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Die Aktien-Risikolage wird nicht besser

Die steigenden Aktienkurse sorgen nicht für Entspannung in unserem Datenkranz. Im Gegenteil. Die von uns gemessene Risikolage verschlechtert sich weiter. Wir zeigen dies anhand diverser sentix-Indikatoren auf. Pa-rallelen zum Frühjahr 2006 drängen sich auf.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EuroSTOXX 50

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sentix ASR Essentials 11-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 19 March 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Commodities sentiment setback a risk for EM Equities

Investor sentiment towards emerging market (EM) equities remains closely linked with views on commodities. It is notable then that optimism on commodities as a grouping has been tempered in the past month, even as EM sentiment has headed higher. The latest survey highlights a large and growing divergence of opinions on two key commodity markets, with investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Crude Oil becoming ever-more negative, while Gold readings have resumed their upward path. This caution on crude appears to be dampening sentiment towards commodities as an asset class. Based on past experience, the risk is that continued caution on commodities proves a drag on EM equity sentiment. See Charts 2-4, p2.

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