sentix ASR Essentials 40-2014

Written by Patrick Hussy | 26 October 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Pessimism a little less marked on Equities

The latest sentix survey indicates that pessimism towards equities has begun to ease, both in terms of participants' views on the near-term and their medium-term, more strategic opinion on markets. A less pessimistic attitude can also be seen in investor positioning, with the level of over-investment in equities among survey respondents having moved back to longer-term average levels (Chart 3, page 2). While bonds have been the near-term sentiment losers from this change of investor tack, survey participants' over-investment in European bonds is still above long-term average levels (Chart 10a, page 4). It is still early days with regards to the swing in sentiment back from bonds towards equities.

Click here for the full report

sentix ASR Essentials 39-2014

Written by Manfred Hübner | 19 October 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Emerging Market sentiment plays catch-up with Commodities

The latest sentix survey indicates that the notable divergence in opinion on the Emerging Markets (EMs) and Commodities has begun to close. In recent months, a rising tide of optimism towards EMs as an asset class has provided an unusual counterpoint to deep pessimism on Commodities. An odd development given sentiment towards both asset classes has historically had a reasonably close relationship. However, this month’s questions’ on asset class preferences indicate that investors have begun to temper their optimism on EMs. While there remains a notable sentiment gap, Emerging Market sentiment has begun to play catch-up with Commodities.

Click here for the full report (sentix login required)

sentix ASR Essentials 38-2014

Written by Patrick Hussy | 12 October 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Signs that sentiment gap between EMs and Commodities is narrowing

A notable feature of the sentix survey through the summer has been the resilience of sentiment towards Emerging Markets (EMs), at a time when pessimism has been the dominant theme in the case of Commodities. On this front, medium-term sentiment readings for Gold and Crude remain at deep pessimism levels, while nearterm pessimism on Crude is running at historic extremes. However, there are signs that sentiment on the equity front may be changing, with survey readings based on the strategic medium-term outlook for China 'bluechips' beginning to retreat from recent highs (Chart 2, page 2). It may be that the unusually large sentiment gap between EMs and Commodities is beginning to close.

Click here for the full report (sentix registration is necessary)

sentix ASR Essentials 37-2014

Written by Manfred Hübner | 05 October 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Bunds sentiment supported by macro views

The latest sentix survey underlines the rising tide of optimism towards eurozone bonds, both in the near-term and on a medium-term strategic viewpoint. Such optimism may reflect expectations that the ECB could move into the market to purchase government bonds. However, it is also consistent with investors' views (as expressed when answering monthly questions on investment themes) that the inflation and economic backdrop continues to become more bond-bullish on a six month view (see Charts 2/3, page 2). That said, while the tide of optimism is rising, the survey also suggests that medium-term 'neutrality' levels on bunds are also becoming elevated. A degree of uncertainty on bunds remains beneath the sentiment surface.

Click here for the full report (sentix registration necessary)

sentix ASR Essentials 36-2014

Written by Patrick Hussy | 28 September 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

High uncertainty on Equities even as sentiment revives

While sentix survey respondents remain highly pessimistic on the Euro, there are signs that optimism is returning in terms of the medium-term outlook for Eurozone bonds and equities (see Charts 6 & 9, pages 3 & 4). In the case of equities, the revival in medium-term sentiment readings on the likes of the DAX and EuroSTOXX indices has occurred despite heightened pessimism over the near-term outlook. It may be that investors have begun to see value in equities after their summer setbacks. However, the improved tone of sentiment has also been set against a reduced level of over-investment in equities, based on the monthly survey questions on investor positioning. Equity sentiment on the medium-term is improving, but uncertainties have not gone away, as indicated by positioning and elevated 'neutrality' levels (see Chart 7, page 3).