sentix ASR Essentials 30-2017

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 30 July 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Eurozone equity sentiment caught in the grip of euro optimism

The latest sentix survey revealed that participants are still running with below average levels of over-investment in equities, while pessimism on indices such as the EuroSTOXX remains notable. This latter development may, to some extent, represent the sentiment flipside of still high optimism on the near-term outlook for the euro, given the risk that euro strength begins to weigh on the outlook for exporters. Sentiment readings on EUR/USD did tick modestly lower over the week, albeit they remain elevated. Any further moderation in euro optimism over the summer might be the catalyst for renewed sentiment support for eurozone equities. See Charts 2-4, p2.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 29-2017

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 24 July 2017
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Der Euro begeistert – die Aktionäre nicht

Die Märkte befinden sich im Sog der Wechselkurse. Die Euro-Stärke hinterlässt ihre Spuren am deutschen Aktienmarkt. Dies führt zu Extremwerten im Aktiensentiment wie auch euphorischen Zügen an den Währungsmärkten. Was bedeutet dies für die nächsten Wochen?

Geänderte Einschätzungen: neue Stop-Limite beim S&P 500 sowie Kauflimite bei DAX und EuroSTOXX50

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sentix ASR Essentials 29-2017

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 23 July 2017
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Near-term Euro optimism hits high-end of range

Last week’s ECB meeting has provided a further fillip to an already rising tide of optimism on the Euro versus the dollar. In the near-term, EUR/USD sentiment readings have reached the high end of their range of the past seven years, albiet optimism did reach even higher levels in 2010-11. Nevertheless, such elevated optimism suggests increased potential for near-term sentiment setbacks. However, near-term uncertainties aside, the latest sentix survey also revealed that survey participants’ strategic bias is also becoming ever-more positive. It appears that investors don’t view the currency as overvalued, and see further upside for EUR/USD in the medium-term. See Charts 2-4, p2.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 28-2017

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 17 July 2017
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Erleichterung bei Aktien, Störfaktoren voraus

Um mehr als 40 Prozentpunkte schnellen binnen Wochenfrist die Sentiment-Indizes für europäische Aktien nach oben. Die Erleichterung ist groß, dass sich die Ängste vor einem stärkeren Abverkauf nicht durchsetzen konnten. Die großen Aktienindizes haben sich vielmehr aus dem Klammergriff der Bären befreien können, der S&P 500 markiert zum Wochenschluss sogar ein neues Allzeithoch. Doch die Erleichterung am Aktienmarkt hat einen Haken. Für eine Vielzahl anderer Assets ergeben sich problematische Vorgaben, die in ihrer Wirkung auch den Aktienmärkten auf die Füße fallen könnten.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Rohöl, EUR/USD und US-Treasuries; Neue Stopp-Loss-Kurse bei Aktien

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sentix ASR Essentials 28-2017

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 16 July 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

A lot of pessimism baked into Autos

Survey questions on investors’ views on the medium-term outlook for European sectors reveal growing optimism on financial sectors and a moderation in pessimism on Energy versus the market. However, pessimism on cyclical sectors such as Retail and Autos remains the dominant sentiment theme. Autos are now the least loved sector among survey participants, with survey readings dropping to levels last seen in H1 2013. A lot of negative relative sentiment is baked into Autos, with survey readings moving towards the low end of their historic range – an interesting development from a contrarian perspective. See page 2 for charts.

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