sentix Survey results (15-2025)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 13 April 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

Trump-o-meter at all-time low

The disenchantment with Donald Trump and the impact of his policies on the stock market is reaching a new dimension. Compared to his first term in office, the incumbent US president is starting with enormous advance praise. There is nothing left of the Trump euphoria in autumn. The barometer falls to an all-time low! The initial shock on the stock market subsides somewhat, but the damage (to confidence) that has already been done is enormous. This is reflected in the bond and FX sectors.

Further results

• FX & Bonds: Massive loss of confidence for US assets
• Bitcoins: Almost the best that the sentix data ring has to offer
• sentix sector sentiment

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Shock due to tariffs

Written by Patrick Hussy | 07 April 2025
Posted in sentix Economic News

Trump's tariff hammer sends the sentix economic indices plummeting globally. The overall index for the eurozone falls by 16.7 points to -19.5 points, its lowest level since October 2023. The euphoria for the economy in Germany / EU from the previous month has evaporated. In particular, economic expectations for the eurozone are falling at a record pace. The slump of 33.8 points is the second sharpest ever recorded in the history of sentix. At -36.3 points, German economic expectations fell even more sharply. In the previous month, the divergent trend between the eurozone (strongest upturn since the coronavirus/financial crisis) and the one-off slump in the US caused a stir. This slump accelerated again in April. US economic expectations fell to their lowest level since October 2008, while the tariff shock fuelled fears of a global recession.

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sentix Survey results (14-2025)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 06 April 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

All bearish. But is that enough?

What a week! Above all, the US customs announcement has massively shaken the stock markets and caused a crash-like downward movement. This dynamic is also very evident in the current sentix sentiment data, where we are seeing massive swings in short and medium-term expectations for US equities. But there are also significant distortions in the currency area. We are measuring another extraordinary data situation for bonds.

Further results

• Bonds: Unexpected scepticism in US bond confidence
• FX: Short-term exhausted
• sentix Economic index: Monday, 7^th 2025, 10.30 CEST

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sentix Survey results (13-2025)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 30 March 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

Increasing risks in gold

The seasonally positive month of April for equities is just around the corner. So far, this has not lured investors out of their reserves. The equity bias remains depressed despite falling share prices. Bargain hunters are in short supply. On the bond side, professionals are continuing to add to their positions, although they are not developing any confidence. The risks for US bonds and precious metals are increasing significantly. Only EUR/USD is showing positive signs: underlying confidence has risen to its highest level since January 2021.

Further results

• Equities: Where are the bargain hunters?
• Bonds: Offensive positioning vs. negative bias
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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Unique decoupling

Written by Manfred Hübner | 10 March 2025
Posted in sentix Economic News

The announcement of debt-financed armaments programmes (EU and Germany) and infrastructure investments (Germany) has investors positively euphoric about further economic development. The sentix economic index for the euro area rises by 9.8 points to -2.9 points. At the same time, we are witnessing a historic crash in US eco-nomic indicators, the likes of which we have only seen during the 2008 financial crisis. The US expectations index falls for the third time in a row by 25.8 points to -17.8 points. How realistic and sustainable are both investor-designed scenarios?

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