sentix Survey results (46-2024)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 17 November 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

The "Trump trade" is faltering

The ‘Trump trade’ is faltering. At least the bulls are already pulling back again. The proportion of bulls in the sentiment index fell by around 20 percentage points. However, the sentiment is still at an elevated level, after we reported an all-time high in the previous week. In Europe, strategic confidence remains weak. There is a bright spot in the sentiment for gold.

Further results

• Gold: A ray of hope
• Crude oil: Strategic bias collapses
• sentix Styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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sentix Survey results (45-2024)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 10 November 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

All-time high in US equity sentiment

Donald Trump's election victory triggers a veritable frenzy of joy. Sentiment for US equities reaches a phenomenal level of +53 percentage points, marking a new all-time high (data history since 2001)! The optimism is focussed very strongly on the US markets. Other stock markets are sending worrying signals. The bond markets are also feeling the effects. The consolidation in precious metals is constructive.

• Further resultsEquities: Bad data for German equities
• Bonds: Bias implosion
• sentix sector sentiment

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sentix Survey results (44-2024)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 03 November 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

Pessimism returns quickly

Within two weeks, investors' euphoria on the stock market has faded and even turned into slight pessimism. It still seems too early for an anti-cyclical entry. The bond market in particular is proving to be a spoilsport. The declining bond prices are being acknowledged by a falling bias. This is likely to be a stress test for offensive bond portfolios. The expected consolidation in precious metals is also taking shape.

Further results

• Equities: Overconfidence for US technology stocks
• Bonds: Stress test
• sentix economic index: Monday, 04th Nov. 2024 at 10:30 AM CET

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Germany's crisis is not shocking

Written by Manfred Hübner | 03 November 2024
Posted in sentix Economic News

The news is coming thick and fast in Germany at the moment. It has taken a long time for the economy and the media to wake up and increase the pressure on politics. Perhaps it is the hope that this will lay the groundwork for better times ahead. In any case, even the German economic data is improving a little. The composite index for Germany rose by 1.7 points. For the euro zone, this also means a slight recovery in the overall index to -12.8 points. Investors are also optimistic about the US economy in view of the upcoming US presidential elections, with the overall index rising for the third time in a row. China, on the other hand, still has to prove itself.

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China stimulus provides (moderate) tailwind

Written by Patrick Hussy | 06 October 2024
Posted in sentix Economic News

The downward economic trend has been halted for the time being. All regions of the world are showing signs of improvement: the overall index for the eurozone rose from -15.4 to -13.8 points in October after three consecutive declines. While the current situation index in the eurozone once again plumbed a new low for the year, the expectations index rose to -3.8 points. The eurozone economy is thus starting its next attempt to find its way out of recession/stagnation. The German economy remains in recession mode for the time being. On a positive note, however, the expectation values show an improvement with a plus of 6.8 points. The domestic economy is benefiting from the global economic trend: Asia ex Japan (China) in particular is showing positive momentum. However, the USA and Japan are also signalling an economic revival.

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