Reports
Folder: Reports (English)
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January 2022 results
- Uploaded:
- 09.01.22
- File Size:
- 398 KB
sentix Economic Index: Stabilization is progressing
- The stabilization of economic indices is progressing in January 2022. At 14.9 points, the overall index for the euro zone increases by 1.4 points. The current assessment improves by 3.0 points, while the expectations component stagnates.
- The picture is similar for the German economy. The overall index rises by 2.6 points, while the current situation scores increase by 5.2 points, which is somewhat more pronounced. The expectations component also confirms its previous month's value at +15.0 points.
- The figures for the Asia ex Japan region are particularly encouraging. All subcomponents increased. This gives more contour to our basic scenario that the global economy will recover and emerge from the mid-cycle slowdown.
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December 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 05.12.21
- File Size:
- 397 KB
Lockdown-Blues
The global economy is still in a process of economic slowdown. This is proceeding in an orderly manner in most regions. The situation values are declining, while the medium-term expectations remain stable or even improve. This basically confirms our expectation that we are experiencing a "mid-cycle slowdown". The situation in Euro-land, on the other hand, looks worse. The tighter lockdown measures, which have been taken above all in Ger-many and Austria, are dampening the assessments of the situation there considerably. A slowdown to the point of recession no longer seems out of the question. These lock-downs are hitting the economy harder than before.
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November 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 07.11.21
- File Size:
- 347 KB
sentix Economic Index: Things are looking up again!
- Economic indicators manage a turnaround in November. At 18.3 points, the overall index for the euro zone rises for the first time since July 2021, despite a further decline in the current situation. The improvement is due to a significant rise in expectations, which increased by 5.3 points.
- For Germany, the overall index stagnated once again, with the current situation values even dropping by a further 6.2 points. Fortunately, however, the expectations component increased by 5.3 points. The turnaround seems to have been achieved!
- This confirms our thesis for the global economy that the recent slowdown is a mid-cycle slowdown. Economic expectations are rising, especially in the USA, but also in Asia.
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October 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 03.10.21
- File Size:
- 352 KB
Loss of momentum continues
- Economic indicators for the Eurozone continue to lose momentum in October. At 16.9 points, the overall index falls for the third time in a row. Expectations drop for the fifth time in a row to only 8 points.
- For Germany, we get the first feedback after the Bundestag elections: The current assessment also slips by 5 points, while the expectations component is bucking the global loss of momentum and even manages to increase by 2.7 points.
- The signs for the global economy continue to point to "mid-cycle slowdown". The slowdown in growth in the middle of the cycle is progressing in the major economic regions - first and foremost in the USA. The Asia ex Japan region also continues to breathe a sigh of relief, where current and expected values are falling synchronously.
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September 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 05.09.21
- File Size:
- 393 KB
Fourth decline in a row!
The momentum of the global economy is slowing. The expectation scores of most regions in the sentix business cycle indices are falling for the fourth or fifth time in a row. The expectation values are still positive, but the zenith of the economic recovery since the lockdowns last autumn has been passed. This is also evident in the assessments of the economic situation, which have only improved slightly in a few regions. In the important region of Asia ex Japan, on the other hand, we measure a noticeable decline.
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August 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 08.08.21
- File Size:
- 354 KB
sentix Economic Index: Third decline in a row
- The recovery of current assessment in the Eurozone continues. Valuations are reaching levels last surpassed in October 2018.
- However, the expectations component loses significantly by 15.8 points, marking the third decline in a row. The overall index slips by 7.6 points.
- The German economy also continues to present itself in boom-like condition. The assessment of the current situation rose for the 15th time in a row to 38.5 points. The expectations component suffers similarly strongly.
- The global economy is also shifting down a gear in the current boom. Here it is not only the expectations values that characterise the loss of momentum, but also the current assessment, which are more clearly in retreat. The pronounced weakness in the Asia ex Japan region also contributes to this.
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July 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 04.07.21
- File Size:
- 429 KB
Can it get any better?
The global economy is running at full speed. Even the crisis region of Latin America is back in positive territory for the first time since May 2018. Even if the recession has not yet been fully overcome there, things are booming everywhere. The global situation index rose for the 15th time in a row to 29.4 points. Can it get any better? In the short term, there are increasing signs of overstimulation. Expectations are starting to fall. This could contribute to higher stock market volatility over the summer.
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June 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 06.06.21
- File Size:
- 665 KB
Current situation gains momentum
The economic catch-up process continues and above all the situation is now assessed much better than four weeks ago. No wonder, since more and more restrictions are being lifted in Europe after the Corona case num-bers declined significantly. In Euroland, the situation index rises by 15 points to 21.3. This is the highest value since November 2018. The same can be observed for all other world regions. We also measure further increases in the sentix indices in Latin America and Eastern Europe, where economic activity has been subdued so far.
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May 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 09.05.21
- File Size:
- 588 KB
Overstimulation?
The global economy is beginning to show signs of overheating. The situation assessments in all regions continue to improve. With the exception of Latin America and Eastern Europe, we measure positive values everywhere. The Corona-related recession phase has ended. At the same time, expectations remain high. Investors therefore expect a continuation of the current upswing, which is increasingly perceived as a boom. This has a noticeable ef-fect on the situation on the bond markets. Investors expect reactions from the central banks.
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April 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 05.04.21
- File Size:
- 354 KB
sentix Economic Index: Strong increase in the current situation - worldwide!
- The sentix Business Cycle Index for the Eurozone rose sharply in March by 5.2 points to its highest level since February 2020. Above all, the situation scores improved significantly. The economic recovery is thus continuing.
- In Germany, the increase is not quite as strong, but the overall index of 11.9 points is still the best value since November 2018.
- The improvements are evident in virtually all regions of the world. It is essentially the situation scores that are improving significantly everywhere, indicating that the global economy is emerging from the recession caused by the Corona pandemic. The overall global index rises for the eleventh time in a row to now +20.5 points.
