sentix ASR Essentials 52-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 27 December 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

We wish all sentix survey participants, clients and partners a happy new year 2016.

The next report will be publish in January 2016.

sentix ASR Essentials 51-2015

Written by Patrick Hussy | 20 December 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

No Christmas cheer for Commodities

Caution on the coming year appears to be the dominant theme as the clock ticks down to Christmas. While near-term sentiment towards global equity indices is running at modestly positive levels, the latest sentix survey also suggests investors are becoming less keen on developed and emerging markets from a medium-term strategic perspective. In the case of emerging markets, this chimes with increasing caution on commodities as an asset class. At a market level, pessimism is most marked on Crude Oil, with survey readings entrenched at the low end of the range, albeit they are above historic extremes (Charts 2-4, page 2). Commodity pessimism is bad news for EM Equities, given that sentiment on both remains closely linked.

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sentix ASR Essentials 50-2015

Written by Patrick Hussy | 13 December 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Energy pessimism hits historic extremes

The latest sentix survey points to increased caution on equities, with sentiment back at relatively neutral levels and readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias drifting lower (see Charts 5-6, page 3). At a sector level, several areas of the market are prey to even more deeply entrenched pessimism. Investor pessimism is notable on Utilities, Banks and Basic Resources, albeit readings remain above recent lows. Investors appear even more downbeat on the Energy sector versus the market, with monthly survey readings having reached historic lows. This echoes the sharply deteriorating sentiment towards Oil that has followed in the wake of the break lower in Brent Oil below $40 (Charts 3-4, page 2). Energy is deeply unloved.

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sentix ASR Essentials 49-2015

Written by Patrick Hussy | 06 December 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Macro optimism challenges medium-term positivity on Bunds

The latest sentix survey was set against a backdrop of markets that were digesting disappointment on ECB stimulus, along with OPEC news and robust US payrolls data. The most notable result was a big improvement in sentiment on Euro versus US Dollar, though survey readings are still only back to relatively neutral levels. On the other side of the sentiment divide, near-term sentiment towards Bunds has deteriorated. This chimes with the December sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone which revealed a further improvement in the headline index (+0.6 to +15.7), as well as survey readings that indicate ‘economics’ is seen a becoming more bond bearish as an ‘investment theme’. Macro views may provide a challenge to investors’ more positive opinion on Bunds from a medium-term strategic perspective. See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 48-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 30 November 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Santa Mario lässt Anlegerherzen höher schlagen

Was in den Köpfen eines Notenbankers vorgeht, entzieht sich unserer Vorstellungskraft. Was in den Köpfen der Anleger vorgeht, ermitteln wir dagegen recht genau. Und da tut sich einiges. Das Belohnungszentrum der Anleger wird von den „Möglichkeiten“, welche die EZB hat oder zu haben scheint, schon vor Vollzug konkreter Maßnahmen kräftig stimuliert. Bekanntlich ist die Vorfreude die schönste aller Freuden. Bleibt nur zu hoffen, dass Santa Mario auch wie versprochen liefert. Denn nach der EZB-Sitzung dürfte es an Freudennachrichten eher wieder mangeln.

Geänderte Einschätzung: Alle Aktienmärkte, EUR-USD

Klicken Sie hier für die aktuelle Investmentmeinung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)