sentix ASR Essentials 47-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 27 November 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Bias on Bonds and Gold increasingly negative

The latest sentix survey indicates that investors have become a little less pessimistic on the near-term outlook for bonds, while the substantial negative gap between investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Eurozone (EZ) bonds versus equities has also narrowed in the last couple of weeks. However, survey participants remain deeply downbeat on the medium-term prospects for bonds on both sides of the Atlantic, with monthly questions on investor positioning also pointing to below average levels of net over-investment in EZ bonds. In short, investors remain negative on bonds in the medium-term. This chimes with their increasingly negative strategic bias on Gold. Bonds remain unloved while Gold appears to be quickly losing its lustre for investors in a medium-term context (Charts 2-4, p2).

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sentix Investmentmeinung 46-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 21 November 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Erste Phase der Trump-Rally abgeschlossen

Die neuesten sentix-Daten signalisieren, dass die erste Phase der Trump-Wahl-Rally wohl weitgehend abge-schlossen ist. Vor allem die hohen Sentimentwerte sprechen dafür, aber auch eine Überzeichnung bei den Verlierermärkten, den Emerging Markets Aktien sowie europäischen Aktien. Als Nächstes dürften zwei wei-tere politische Events in den Fokus rücken: Das Verfassungsreferendum in Italien sowie die FED-Sitzung am 14. Dezember. Eine gewisse Konsolidierung der Aktienmärkte erscheint deshalb wahrscheinlich.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: US-Aktien, Japanische Aktien

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sentix ASR Essentials 46-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 20 November 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Ties that bind EM and Commodity sentiment loosen

The fallout from the US election result continues to overhang market sentiment. In equities, the latest sentix survey points to a sharp downward reversal in investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Eurozone equities relative to the US, perhaps reflecting an underlying change in relative economic expectations. At the same time, the latest monthly sentiment readings on emerging market (EM) equities as an asset class have also sharply fallen, in a development that chimes with increased optimism on the outlook for the US Dollar. It is less consistent with commodity sentiment that has only modestly weakened from the levels of a month ago. It appears that the close ties between EM and commodity sentiment have been loosened near-term by the outcome of the US election (Charts 2-4, p2).

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sentix Investmentmeinung 45-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 14 November 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Kurzfristige Euphorie erzwingt eine Handlung

Nach dem Wahlsieg Trumps kommen die Märkte in Bewegung. Vor allem US-Aktien sind die Gewinner, aber auch japanische Aktien profitieren über den festen US-Dollar. Auf der anderen Seite verlieren Emerging Markets und Renten und in Europa ziert sich der Markt noch, eine bullische oder bearische Entscheidung zu vollziehen. Wir orientieren uns an unseren Daten und diese legen verschiedene Handlungen nahe.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Deutsche Aktien, Euroland Aktien, Chinesische Aktien, Rohöl

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sentix ASR Essentials 45-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 13 November 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Bonds sentiment bashed; Banks and Healthcare sentiment boosted

The US election result has cast a shadow across the latest sentix survey. At an asset level, pessimism has grown more notable on bonds, with readings on bunds sentiment becoming even more deeply entrenched at the low end of the historic sentiment range (see Chart 8, page 4). In terms of opinions on the US, the gap between investors’ strategic bias on the S&P 500 versus US 10Y Treasuries has also sharply increased. Bond sentiment on both sides of the Atlantic has been a notable casualty from the unexpected US election result. In a European equity context, the big winners have been Banks and Healthcare, where sentiment has markedly improved over the past month relative to the market. See page 2 for charts.

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