sentix ASR Essentials 19-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 15 May 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Poles apart on Banks and Real Estate

The latest sentix survey provides a view of investors’ current convictions on European sectors versus the market. A couple of themes emerge. For one thing, sentiment towards commodity-plays such as Basic Resources and Energy continues to improve, albeit investors have become more cautious on Oil’s medium-term prospects. For another, pessimism is still the dominant theme on Financials, with sentiment readings on Insurance hitting a 12-month low and readings on Banks versus the market firmly entrenched at the low-end of their historic range. This provides a stark contrast to the investor optimism that is evident on the Real Estate sector, with sentiment readings nearing their 2012 highs. Investor sentiment is poles apart on Banks and Real Estate. See p2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 18-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 10 May 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

There are no translations available.

Yen-Signale

Wir erweitern unsere Empfehlungsliste um ein neues Asset und starten mit einer positiven Einschätzung für EUR-JPY. Hintergrund sind die neusten Daten des sentix Konjunkturindex, ein verbesserter Strategischer Bias sowie eine vielversprechende Technik. Vor allem die relative Schwäche der japanischen Konjunktur sollte den Yen wieder unter Druck bringen. Der Rutsch der Lagebeurteilung deutet auf eine stark gestiegene Rezessionswahrscheinlichkeit und damit Abwertungsdruck auf den Yen hin. Bei USD-JPY ist die Lage vergleichbar.

Geänderte Einschätzung: EUR-JPY, USD-JPY

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sentix ASR Essentials 18-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 08 May 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Nikkei knocked back by deteriorating macro expectations

The latest sentix survey underlines the continued interplay between macro and market expectations. In the case of Japan, a bounce-back in economic expectations as Q1 drew to a close proved short-lived, with monthly readings weakening in the past month to -8.5 (from -5.5). This chimes with a reversal in readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias on the Nikkei 225, which are drifting back towards recent lows after briefly recovering in early April. Investors’ views on the Japanese equity market remain clouded by concern about its economic outlook. The only beacon amidst the gloom on Japan is provided by FX, with signs that survey participants have become a little less negative on USD/JPY in the medium-term (see Page 2 for charts).

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Japan and the US contra the emerging markets

Written by Patrick Hussy | 08 May 2016
Posted in sentix Economic News

Economic expectations for the Eurozone remain resilient as investors perception about the future development of Japan continues to deteriorate. Moreover, in May investors get wary about the situation of the US economy. Emerging markets proceed their recovery. The headline index for the Eurozone marginally raises by +0.5 points to +6.2 points. Overall investors draw a rather non-dynamic picture about the economic condition of the Eurozone as expectations remain unchanged and the perception of the current situation with a change of +1 point displays weak momentum.

Loss aversion vs. persuasion

Written by Julien Mueller | 03 May 2016
Posted in Special research

The reaction of investors to an absence of further quantitative easing by the Japanese central bank has been significant. The latest sentix Sentiment for the USD/JPY exchange rate drops by 31 percentage points. Albeit investors’ confidence in the USD remains stable. A promising setup for a rising USD/JPY exchange rate over the medium term.