Global momentum fades, but Japan takes off

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 08 June 2015
Posted in sentix Economic News

All in all, sentix Economic Indices point to lower dynamics in the world economy indicated by weaker 6-month expectations for the Global Aggregate. However, developments are rather heterogeneous among the regions: While investors trim back their expectations for the euro area and for Germany, they raise them for Japan and the US. And, at the same time, as a rate hike by the Fed this year becomes more probable, investors’ perspectives for the emerging-markets regions get cloudy.

sentix ASR Essentials 23-2015

Written by Patrick Hussy | 07 June 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Equity sentiment falls to low in 2015

Sentiment for stocks falls to its lowest reading in 2015. A positive feature is that investors’ basic conviction for the asset class remains high. This observation cannot be made for Chinese equities, though. Here, the negative setup intensifies. Interesting signals also pop up on the bond side. The Strategic Bias for the US Treasury future climbs to a new high in 2015. For the US dollar the air is getting thinner – against the euro as well as against the Japanese yen.

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Readiness to sell Chinese stocks rises

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 01 June 2015
Posted in Special research

At high speed the sentix Strategic Bias currently falls for Chinese mainland stocks. The indicator stands for investors’ basic conviction for a market. Its sharp decline signals that a substantial readiness to sell has now emerged for Chinese equities.

sentix Investmentmeinung 22-2015

Written by Patrick Hussy | 01 June 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

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Neutrale erhöhen Vola – Instis stützen strategisch

Der Mai ist seinem Ruf als „Gewinnmitnahmemonat“ treu geblieben. Obwohl sich die Aktienmärkte per Saldo wenig bewegten, fühlt sich das Nullsummenspiel als Verlust an. Immerhin produzierte der Time Differential Index für deutsche / europäische Aktien zum Monatsanfang Mai ein klassisches Kaufsignal, das vom Index-Niveau (-60%) selten zu beobachten ist und eine extrem hohe Trefferquote aufweist. Der Sprint im DAX von 11.100 im Tief bis auf über 11.900 ist deshalb nur ein Teilerfolg, da der anschließende Abgabedruck die zwischenzeitlichen Gewinne wie Sand durch die Finger zerrinnen ließ. Auch heute stehen die Zeichen vom Investorenverhalten eher auf Kauf. Ein Blick auf den TD-Index zeigt immer noch eine vorteilhafte Situation an – auch wenn diese vom Niveau her (-35%) nicht mit der vor vier Wochen zu vergleichen ist.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Gold, USD/JPY, diverse Aktienmärkte

Klicken Sie hier für die aktuelle Investmentmeinung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

sentix ASR Essentials 22-2015

Written by Patrick Hussy | 31 May 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

High uncertainty on near-term outlook for Equities

The latest survey highlights a couple of notable trends. While near-term sentiment towards Bunds has continued to recover, with readings bouncing back to relatively neutral levels, investors continue to become less upbeat on bonds from a mediumterm perspective. At the same time, investors appear to be losing their faith in equities from a medium-term strategic viewpoint with medium-term readings weakening across the board (see Chart 3, page 2). At the same time, the latest survey points to notable levels of uncertainty among survey participants on the near-term outlook for equities, as measured by the sentix neutrality index. Such a high degree of uncertainty would suggest near-term volatility may remain a feature for equity markets.