Chinese glimmers of hope

Written by Manfred Hübner | 07 August 2016
Posted in sentix Economic News

Economic expectations are no longer negatively affected by the Brexit fallout. The sentix Economic Index improves moderately to +4.2 points. Positive growth impulses of the Chinese economy are accountable for the latest upswing, however. The European economy merely contributes to the confidence built up. The index for Asia ex. Japan jumps from +8.2 to +14.1 points. The latest round of yuan depreciation against the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen seems to act as a stimulant.

“Overconfidence Index” highlights threat to bond market

Written by Julien Mueller | 01 August 2016
Posted in Special research

The sentix Global Investor Survey points towards mounting risk for German Bunds as the sentix Overconfidence Indicator’s +9 Points for the Bund-Future flashes warning signals. Comparable overconfidence levels have preceded market moves to the downside.

sentix Investmentmeinung 30-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 01 August 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

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Rohöl mit konstruktivem Sentimentsignal

Seit März bestand in Öl eine stark überkaufte Marktlage. Obwohl das sentix Risikoradar seit Wochen ein ho-hes Rückschlagrisiko signalisierte, kam erst ab Mitte Juni – nach dem Brexit – „Fahrt“ nach unten auf. Inzwi-schen hat Öl rund 20% vom Hoch verloren. Zeit, die negative Empfehlung zu überdenken.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Rohöl

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sentix ASR Essentials 30-2016

Written by Patrick Hussy | 31 July 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

High near-term neutrality chimes with low equity volatility

Despite a positive week for eurozone equity market performance, the latest Sentix survey suggests sentiment on the near-term prospects for markets has modestly deteriorated, even though survey readings based on investors’ strategic bias on markets have broadly held onto recent advances. This may reflect the heightened level of neutrality (or uncertainty) on the near-term outlook for markets that is also evident in the survey. High neutrality chimes with current low levels of implied equity volatility as measured by the likes of the VSTOXX (Chart 2, p2). With both measures looking stretched, there is a risk that volatility picks up in the near-term.

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Contagion risk for other countries increases

Written by Patrick Hussy | 25 July 2016
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

After the Brexit shock and the obvious increase end of June the sentix EBI (Euro Break-up Index) calms down by the end of the month July 2016. The decline of 6.8 points to 20.3 points should not hide the fact that the value is still higher than before the Brexit referendum. The obvious calm in the capital markets does not seem to mean, the risk for a break-up of the euro zone has sustainably given away. In the background the risk of contagion rather increases. Several countries like Finland or Italy reach new annual highs in the country-EBI-indices.