From strategist to strategist: share buybacks under the microscope

Written by Manfred Hübner | 20 January 2020
Posted in Woolly thoughts (blog)

In a podcast of the series "Strategist & Strategist" (1), which is well worth listening to, colleagues from Flossbach von Storch (FvS) analyse the effects of share buybacks by companies on share prices. The starting point for their reflections was the assertion of many market participants that share prices can be manipulated by buybacks and that these can also be used fraudulently. We also have our thoughts on this topic! We have already presented them many times in our annual outlooks and will supplement them here once again in greater depth.

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sentix Survey results (03-2020)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 19 January 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

Consolidation ante portas

In the previous week we emphasized the increased risks in the US equity market. In the course of the week this did not change. The overbought situation has now reached almost 30% of all shares in the S&P 500. This is a historically high level and was only outbid at the beginning of 2018. By contrast, the mood has cooled down. Is this positive and is there a negative sentiment divergence? This is what we are investigating in this sentix sentiment analysis.

Further topics:

• FX: Further per EUR-USD
• Precious metals: mood ok, positioning strained
• sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

Investors love technology stocks (even more)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 14 January 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

In November 2019 we last highlighted European technology stocks. Investor sentiment for this sector was already dazzling back then. At the start of 2020, investors are going one step further. One too much?

Read the research here

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sentix Survey results (02-2020)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 13 January 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

Risk-signals for US equities

The stock markets, especially in the USA, have made a good start to the new year. Even geopolitical irritations were unable to unsettle investors significantly. But now there are increasing signs of consolidation. The sentix risk radar is at -1.4 points, one of the most negative values since 2001, reflecting sentiment, technical analysis and positioning. The second half of January is also often a time for consolidation due to seasonal factors.

Further topics:

• FX: Further per EUR-USD
• Precious metals: mood ok, positioning strained
• sentix Sector sentiment

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

sentix Survey results (01-2020)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 05 January 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

Overconfidence in series

At the end of the year, almost everything has now taken a knock, which is an anti-cyclical reminder to be cautious with equities. In addition to the high values in the sentix Sentiment for US equities, the AAII bull bear index has also reached an extreme value. In addition, we measured high long ratios among both private and institutional investors at the end of December. Risk is also indicated by the high overconfidence. The start of the year should be bumpy.

Further topics:

• Equities: Italy's stock market creates perspectiv
• Crude oil: Sentiment runs hot
• sentix Economic indices: Monday, 06.01.2020, 10.30 AM

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)