Exit discussions are in 2016 again on the agenda
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28 December 2015
Posted in
sentix Euro Break-up Index News
The risk of a breakup of the Eurozone had calmed down until the autumn, in parallel pulled the refugee crisis the full attention of the public. But the “exit-issue” comes in 2016 again on the Agenda: The sentix Euro Break-up In-dex (EBI) rises to 14 points in December. This is the second increase in a row. The perception of investors is changing and more countries will be increasingly traded as an exit candidate.
Who has believed that peace now enters, is likely to have made a mistake! In particular, the institutional investors get sen-sitive that the risk of a breakup of the Eurozone will again be a major investment theme in 2016. Their sub-index already increases the third time. In order to "Grexit" it was since the summer gone quiet, but make other egress candidates at-tracted attention in recent months. In addition to Finland (plebiscite) are increasingly Cyprus, Spain (election results) but also Germany among investors called as an exit candidate. The measured risk of contagion increased steadily for several months now and win in December with an increase to 28.4 points more dynamic. After all, this value marks the highest level since May 2015 (see chart below, blue line). So it is clear that politics and markets in the coming months, will face once again with the problems of over-indebtedness and the attempt of limitation of liability of individual countries. First reac-tions to the European government spreads can be observed already.
