Eurozone continues to stabilise

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Written by Julien Mueller | 26 October 2015
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

In October, the sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) continues to decline to 11.3%, marking the lowest reading for 2015. Despite facing a tough challenge due to Europe’s influx of migrants, the Eurozone’s stability is currently not being retested.

Although, Europe’s present refugee crisis reveals fundamental cultural as well as political differences among European nations, the stability of the Eurozone remains robust. Recent political developments overshadow all unsolved and deferred issues of the common currency. That those issues remain smoldering under the surface underline the latest European central bank’s flurry. Despite ostensible stability, the European central bank felt prompted to offer financial markets more monetary stimulus.

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The decline of the sentix EBI Index to an annual low of 11.3% comes with no surprise amid a marked-guiding central bank policy. All country values lie below 2%, Greece shows still a reading of 9%. Though, the index for Greece dropped to a 52 weeks low. Comparing investors’ probability of a country’s exit from the Eurozone with government bonds to German bunds spread, the sentix EBI Index signalizes unchanged moderate performance opportunities for Greek and Portuguese sovereign bonds.

Background

The sentix Euro Break-up Index is published on a monthly basis and was launched in June 2012. Its poll is running for two days around the fourth Friday of each month. Results are regularly published on the following Tuesday morning. Survey participants may choose up to three euro-zone member states of which they think they will quit the currency union within the next twelve months. Further details on the sentix Euro Break-up Index can be found on: http://ebr.sentix.de.

This month’s reading of 11.3% means that currently this percentage of all surveyed investors expect the euro to break up within the next twelve months. The EBI has reached its high at 73% in July 2012, and touched its low at 7.6% in July 2014.

The current poll in which 1.004 individual and institutional investors participated was conducted from October 22 to October 24, 2015.

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