Robust, but heterogeneous
10 March 2014
Posted in
sentix Economic News
The sentix economic index (composite index) for the euro zone rises again in March and climbs from 13.3 to 13.9 points. This development is driven by investors' assessments of the current situation, while 6-month expecta-tions fall for the first time since September. For Germany, expectations decline for the third month in a row. Nevertheless, the composite index still signals that the German economy is in the middle of boom.
In the rest of the world things look rather mixed: Against the background of the Crimean crisis the sentix eco-nomic index for Eastern Europe drops strongly. But it rises for the two other emerging-markets regions, Asia ex Japan and Latin America. For the US, investors' opinions remain almost unchanged, while for Japan sentiment worsens further. The composite index for the global aggregate stays at a constant level, but the relatively high heterogeneity between countries and regions points to an increased uncertainty among investors and blurs the overall picture.
Headlines of the month
- The composite index for the euro zone rises in March slightly from 13.3 to now 13.9 points. While the assessment of the current situation improves further, investors adjust their 6-month expectations to the downside.
- The German business cycle is already in a different phase. Here, expectations fall for the third consecutive month which usually points to a trend reversal. Nevertheless, the German composite index still signals that the biggest euro zone economy is currently in a boom.
- The composite index for the global aggregate remains unchanged. But a lot of heterogeneity hides behind this robustness: Eastern Europe and Japan are the losers this month, while Asia ex Japan and Latin America are the winners.
