How much is missing before the crisis?

04 September 2023
Posted in sentix Economic News

The signs for the global economy sent out by the "first mover" among the economic indicators - the sentix economic index - point to a further downturn and a strengthening of the economic downturn forces. The situation in Germany remains particularly precarious. Here we are measuring the weakest situation values since July 2020, when the economy was slowed by the first Corona lockdown. Germany is also weighing heavily on the economy in the euro zone as a whole. The recession is progressing. But even for the USA, which has so far held up well and defied the restrictive FED policy, the economic data are falling markedly. The tipping point of a global recession is less distant than one might think.

Full report September 2023

Headlines of the month

• The "first mover" among the economic indicators is also in weak shape in September. The overall index for the euro zone falls again to -21.5 points. The situation score falls to its lowest level since November 2022.
• Germany remains in recession, increasingly reminiscent of the slumps after the 2008 financial crisis or the first lockdown in 2020. We measure the fifth consecutive decline in the overall index and the lowest value of -33.1 points since October 2022. Situation at lowest level since July 2020!
• Internationally, we measure a significant deterioration in the US. In Switzerland, the economy continues to slide and we are close to the recession threshold. The only bright spot remains the Japanese economy, which is benefiting relatively from the lax interest rate policy and the associated weak yen.

sentix Eco Report Euro area

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