sentix Weekly (German)
Folder: 2023 and before
Files:
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Indicator in focus: Trust in Chinese equities is rising further
- Uploaded:
- 15.08.16
- File Size:
- 184 KB
Trust in Chinese equities is rising further
Since February, investor confidence in Chinese stocks has increased continuously. This is a positive signal for the equity market. The current impulse in sentix sentiment, measured in this week’s sentix Global Investor Survey, is now expected to translate the beliefs into concrete portfolio actions.
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sentix Euro Break-up Index: Contagion risk for other countries increases
- Uploaded:
- 01.08.16
- File Size:
- 203 KB
Contagion risk for other countries increases
After the Brexit shock and the obvious increase end of June the sentix EBI (Euro Break-up Index) calms down by the end of the month July 2016. The decline of 6.8 points to 20.3 points should not hide the fact that the value is still higher than before the Brexit referendum. The obvious calm in the capital markets does not seem to mean, the risk for a break-up of the euro zone has sustainably given away. In the background the risk of contagion rather increases. Several countries like Finland or Italy reach new annual highs in the country-EBI-indices.
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Indicator in focus: “Overconfidence Index” highlights threat to bond market
- Uploaded:
- 01.08.16
- File Size:
- 164 KB
“Overconfidence Index” highlights threat to bond market
The sentix Global Investor Survey points towards mounting risk for German Bunds as the sentix Overconfidence Indicator’s +9 Points for the Bund-Future flashes warning signals. Comparable overconfidence levels have preceded market moves to the downside.
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Indicator in focus: Investors prefer global equity markets
- Uploaded:
- 18.07.16
- File Size:
- 250 KB
Investors prefer global equity markets
The latest sentix Strategic Bias conveys a positive implication for global equities. Investors bet on further rising stock markets as confidence mounts. Albeit, the European equity markets are trailing since the Brexit referendum.
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Indicator in focus: Opportunities arise in times of trouble
- Uploaded:
- 11.07.16
- File Size:
- 179 KB
Opportunities arise in times of trouble
The European banking crisis worsens in the wake of the Brexit referendum. The sentix Sector Sentiment marks a new all-time-low. However, investors’ impression has reached such an extreme negative value that it could represent a contrarian buy opportunity.
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Special report on Brexit – an analysis in three acts
- Uploaded:
- 27.06.16
- File Size:
- 748 KB
Brexit – An analysis in three acts
- Act 1 (prelude): investors have long neglected the potential perils of a Brexit. As a logical consequence, fear mounted in the run-up to the referendum. The assassination of the British politician Joe Cox, however, ignited peoples status quo bias again. Until election eve, investors remained in denial. Therefore, the market was completely unprepared.
- Act 2 (Brexit): the victory of the leave campaign caused investors to enter the behavioural stage of recognition abruptly. Over the next days, sentiment and uniform behavioural pattern dominate markets. Although, these behavioural traits will not leave a lasting impact.
- Act 3 (outlook): while irrational exuberances should fade away over the coming days/weeks, the outcome of the Brexit referendum reveals structural interruptions for global markets. Such interruptions often built the basis for new, lasting market trends. It just depends on differentiation, in our opinion, the euro, US equities and German Bunds are to watch.
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Euro Break-up Index: The Brexit becomes a Euro stress test
- Uploaded:
- 27.06.16
- File Size:
- 254 KB
The Brexit becomes a Euro stress test
The unexpected vote of UK citizens wanting to leave the European Union, is also likely to hard shake the foundation of the euro again. Almost a third of investors responding in the sentix survey hold it again possible that the euro zone could break up within twelve months. In addition, new exit candidates appear on the horizon.
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Indicator in focus: The calm before the trend
- Uploaded:
- 20.06.16
- File Size:
- 180 KB
The calm before the trend
Investors’ uncertainty about the Chinese equity market rises to the highest level since November 2015. The sentix time series reveals that comparable neutrality levels are usually a leading indicator for new market trends.
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Indicator in focus: Fear feels different
- Uploaded:
- 13.06.16
- File Size:
- 202 KB
Fear feels different
“Brexit” polls heavily influence investors’ opinion on European equities. The latest surge in popularity of the “leave” camp accompanied by falling stock prices dampens the mood. Market participants should brace for further falling stock prices as the referendum approaches. Investors’ sentiment has yet to reach negative extreme value.
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Euro Break-up Index: Investors underestimate the “Brexit” risk
- Uploaded:
- 31.05.16
- File Size:
- 332 KB
Investors underestimate the “Brexit” risk
The sentix Euro Breakup Index (EBI) for may reflects improvements within the euro zone. Based on declining stress levels in the euro-periphery investors perceive the odds continue to shift in favour for the cohesion of the single currency area. However, a potential “Brexit” would cause significant turmoil.
